Monday, October 03, 2005
Iraqi Advisor RhetIraq: Various Advisors/Experts
Who: Various (see below)
Source: Defense News (via Open Source Intelligence)
Quotes:
"The current sectarian and ethnic killings in Iraq are actually the beginning of a civil war," said Georges Sada, an adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafaari and the executive secretary of the Iraq Institute for Peace. "Sectarian divisions in Iraq have started back in the '90s, which prepared the ground for the civil war spreading today."
"For over a year now, there has not been a day in which Iraq did not
witness sectarian killings where the victims were either Shiite, Sunni
or Kurds," said Ghassan Attiyah, chairman of the Baghdad-based Iraq
Foundation for Development and Democracy. "I'm not talking here about
random shooting. I am talking about targeting people individually on
the roads and killing them for being from one group or another."
"Even if U.S. and Iraqi officials do not want to admit it, the facts
on the ground are overwhelming and they do indicate that Iraq has
plunged into a civil war, and things are getting worse by the day,"
said Qassem Jaafar, a Doha, Qatar-based Middle East security analyst.
Jaafar listed the symptoms of a civil war as:
• A weak central government with incompetent security apparatus.
• Spread of sectarian and ethnic killings.
• Existence of armed sectarian and ethnic militias.
• High threat perception among the sectarian and ethnic groups of the
country.
• Insistence of each group on its demands.
• Foreign interference and support to feuding groups.
Jaafar said all these symptoms are present in Iraq now.
"If the constitution is not amended to meet Sunni demands and goes
as-is to the referendum, then moderate Sunni figures would lose ground
to the radical forces and an all-out civil war will spread to each
corner of the country," Attiyah said.
Jaafar agreed. "The U.S. is facing a serious dilemma in Iraq, where
its Shiite and Kurdish allies have gone out on their own pushing for
their own agendas that do not seem to meet with Washington's vision of
a future Iraq," he said.
"The Shiites, for example, have been pushing for an Iranian-style
Islamic republic, which would not suit U.S. interests," while "the
Kurdish secessionist drive is growing stronger every day, which is
getting Turkey and other neighboring states more worried."
Jaafar said that puts Washington on the hot seat.
"The U.S. is stuck in an almost no-win situation. It can neither just
withdraw from Iraq without completing the mission and establishing
peace and order in the country, and at the same time it does not seem
capable of maintaining Iraq's unity and achieving its promise of
establishing a free and democratic Iraq that would be a good model for
neighboring countries," Jaafar said.
"I believe some U.S. officials have started entertaining the idea of
dividing Iraq on ethnic and sectarian lines to ensure stability and
facilitate their exit after establishing some military bases in the
oil-rich Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq," Attiyah said. "In this
case, Washington would blame the Sunnis and other neighboring states
like Iran and Syria for the breakup of the country."
"Any real solution to the Iraqi conflict must involve the cooperation
of all neighboring states and a compromise on the part of all Iraqi
groups, and a U.S. willingness to address the concerns of all parties
inside and around Iraq," Jaafar said. "This formula looks clear and
doable, but in the real world it's almost impossible, which means more
hard times to come in Iraq." •
Source: Defense News (via Open Source Intelligence)
Quotes:
"The current sectarian and ethnic killings in Iraq are actually the beginning of a civil war," said Georges Sada, an adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafaari and the executive secretary of the Iraq Institute for Peace. "Sectarian divisions in Iraq have started back in the '90s, which prepared the ground for the civil war spreading today."
"For over a year now, there has not been a day in which Iraq did not
witness sectarian killings where the victims were either Shiite, Sunni
or Kurds," said Ghassan Attiyah, chairman of the Baghdad-based Iraq
Foundation for Development and Democracy. "I'm not talking here about
random shooting. I am talking about targeting people individually on
the roads and killing them for being from one group or another."
"Even if U.S. and Iraqi officials do not want to admit it, the facts
on the ground are overwhelming and they do indicate that Iraq has
plunged into a civil war, and things are getting worse by the day,"
said Qassem Jaafar, a Doha, Qatar-based Middle East security analyst.
Jaafar listed the symptoms of a civil war as:
• A weak central government with incompetent security apparatus.
• Spread of sectarian and ethnic killings.
• Existence of armed sectarian and ethnic militias.
• High threat perception among the sectarian and ethnic groups of the
country.
• Insistence of each group on its demands.
• Foreign interference and support to feuding groups.
Jaafar said all these symptoms are present in Iraq now.
"If the constitution is not amended to meet Sunni demands and goes
as-is to the referendum, then moderate Sunni figures would lose ground
to the radical forces and an all-out civil war will spread to each
corner of the country," Attiyah said.
Jaafar agreed. "The U.S. is facing a serious dilemma in Iraq, where
its Shiite and Kurdish allies have gone out on their own pushing for
their own agendas that do not seem to meet with Washington's vision of
a future Iraq," he said.
"The Shiites, for example, have been pushing for an Iranian-style
Islamic republic, which would not suit U.S. interests," while "the
Kurdish secessionist drive is growing stronger every day, which is
getting Turkey and other neighboring states more worried."
Jaafar said that puts Washington on the hot seat.
"The U.S. is stuck in an almost no-win situation. It can neither just
withdraw from Iraq without completing the mission and establishing
peace and order in the country, and at the same time it does not seem
capable of maintaining Iraq's unity and achieving its promise of
establishing a free and democratic Iraq that would be a good model for
neighboring countries," Jaafar said.
"I believe some U.S. officials have started entertaining the idea of
dividing Iraq on ethnic and sectarian lines to ensure stability and
facilitate their exit after establishing some military bases in the
oil-rich Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq," Attiyah said. "In this
case, Washington would blame the Sunnis and other neighboring states
like Iran and Syria for the breakup of the country."
"Any real solution to the Iraqi conflict must involve the cooperation
of all neighboring states and a compromise on the part of all Iraqi
groups, and a U.S. willingness to address the concerns of all parties
inside and around Iraq," Jaafar said. "This formula looks clear and
doable, but in the real world it's almost impossible, which means more
hard times to come in Iraq." •
