Sunday, April 16, 2006
Poll RhetIraq: US Public on US Policy vs. Iran/Iraq
Who: Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll
Source: Los Angeles Times
Quotes: From article titled, "Doubts About Taking On Tehran"
Asked whether they would support military action if Iran continued to produce material that could be used to develop nuclear weapons, 48% of the poll's respondents, or almost half, said yes; 40% said no.
[Blogger's Note: Iran has yet to produce material that could be used to develop nuclear weapons making this a very provocative and misleading question.]
A majority of respondents, 61%, said they believed that Iran would eventually get nuclear weapons. Fifteen percent said they believed that Iran would be prevented from developing nuclear weapons through diplomatic negotiations, and 12% said they thought Iran would be stopped through military action.
In a telling reflection of Bush's erosion in public support, 54% said they did not trust him to "make the right decision about whether we should go to war with Iran," while 42% of respondents said they trusted him to do so.
That was a reversal of public sentiment since 2003, on the eve of Bush's decision to invade Iraq, when 55% of respondents said they trusted him to make the right decision over whether to go to war.
The poll found that two in five Americans, or 40%, said the war in Iraq had made them less supportive of military action against Iran; about the same proportion, 38%, said the experience of Iraq had no influence on their views of Iran. By a ratio of more than 3-to-1, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say that Iraq had made them less supportive of action in Iran.
On Iraq, the poll found that Americans had become markedly more pessimistic about the chances of success in the war since the beginning of this year.
About one in four respondents, or 23%, said they expected the situation in Iraq to "get better" over the coming year. In the Times/Bloomberg poll conducted in January, 34% said they expected the situation to improve.
Most of that decline in overall confidence came from respondents who described themselves as Democrats; 6% in this month's poll said they expected things to improve over the coming year, down from 24% in January. But Republicans' optimism also dropped, to 44% this month from 55% in January.
A majority of respondents, 56%, said they believed Iraq was "currently engaged in a civil war." And a record high number for the Times poll, 58%, said they believed it was not worth going to war in Iraq. Until the spring of 2004, a majority of poll respondents said it was worth going to war, but since 2004 the number disagreeing has gradually risen.
Almost half, 45%, of those polled this month said they believed Bush should set a date for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of his term in 2009. That is a significant increase since October 2004, when a similar question was asked and 28% said Bush should set a definite date for withdrawal.
When asked what the United States should do if the violence in Iraq turned into "a nationwide civil war," about one-third, or 32%, said all American troops should be withdrawn. About the same proportion, 33%, said U.S. troops should remain neutral and attempt to mediate. One-fourth, or 25%, said U.S. troops should intervene in the violence — either to stop the fighting or to help one side win (the latter a minority opinion that measured at 6%).
Options in Iran
Q: Do you think Iran will be stopped from getting nuclear weapons through diplomatic solutions, or only through military action, or will it eventually get nuclear weapons?
Will eventually get nuclear weapons: 61%
Diplomatic solutions: 15%
Military action: 12%
Don't know: 12%
--
Q: Suppose George W. Bush decides to order military action against Iran, which action would you support:
Airstrikes/no ground troops: 44%
No military action: 20%
Combination of airstrikes and ground troops: 19%
Ground troops: 6%
Don't know: 11%
--
Q: If Iran continued to produce material that can be used to develop nuclear weapons, would you support or oppose military action?
Support : 48%
Oppose : 40%
Don't know: 12%
--
Q: Would you trust George W. Bush to make the right decision about whether we should go to war with Iran?
Yes: 42%
No: 54%
Don't know: 4%
Source: Los Angeles Times
Quotes: From article titled, "Doubts About Taking On Tehran"
Asked whether they would support military action if Iran continued to produce material that could be used to develop nuclear weapons, 48% of the poll's respondents, or almost half, said yes; 40% said no.
[Blogger's Note: Iran has yet to produce material that could be used to develop nuclear weapons making this a very provocative and misleading question.]
A majority of respondents, 61%, said they believed that Iran would eventually get nuclear weapons. Fifteen percent said they believed that Iran would be prevented from developing nuclear weapons through diplomatic negotiations, and 12% said they thought Iran would be stopped through military action.
In a telling reflection of Bush's erosion in public support, 54% said they did not trust him to "make the right decision about whether we should go to war with Iran," while 42% of respondents said they trusted him to do so.
That was a reversal of public sentiment since 2003, on the eve of Bush's decision to invade Iraq, when 55% of respondents said they trusted him to make the right decision over whether to go to war.
The poll found that two in five Americans, or 40%, said the war in Iraq had made them less supportive of military action against Iran; about the same proportion, 38%, said the experience of Iraq had no influence on their views of Iran. By a ratio of more than 3-to-1, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say that Iraq had made them less supportive of action in Iran.
On Iraq, the poll found that Americans had become markedly more pessimistic about the chances of success in the war since the beginning of this year.
About one in four respondents, or 23%, said they expected the situation in Iraq to "get better" over the coming year. In the Times/Bloomberg poll conducted in January, 34% said they expected the situation to improve.
Most of that decline in overall confidence came from respondents who described themselves as Democrats; 6% in this month's poll said they expected things to improve over the coming year, down from 24% in January. But Republicans' optimism also dropped, to 44% this month from 55% in January.
A majority of respondents, 56%, said they believed Iraq was "currently engaged in a civil war." And a record high number for the Times poll, 58%, said they believed it was not worth going to war in Iraq. Until the spring of 2004, a majority of poll respondents said it was worth going to war, but since 2004 the number disagreeing has gradually risen.
Almost half, 45%, of those polled this month said they believed Bush should set a date for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of his term in 2009. That is a significant increase since October 2004, when a similar question was asked and 28% said Bush should set a definite date for withdrawal.
When asked what the United States should do if the violence in Iraq turned into "a nationwide civil war," about one-third, or 32%, said all American troops should be withdrawn. About the same proportion, 33%, said U.S. troops should remain neutral and attempt to mediate. One-fourth, or 25%, said U.S. troops should intervene in the violence — either to stop the fighting or to help one side win (the latter a minority opinion that measured at 6%).
Options in Iran
Q: Do you think Iran will be stopped from getting nuclear weapons through diplomatic solutions, or only through military action, or will it eventually get nuclear weapons?
Will eventually get nuclear weapons: 61%
Diplomatic solutions: 15%
Military action: 12%
Don't know: 12%
--
Q: Suppose George W. Bush decides to order military action against Iran, which action would you support:
Airstrikes/no ground troops: 44%
No military action: 20%
Combination of airstrikes and ground troops: 19%
Ground troops: 6%
Don't know: 11%
--
Q: If Iran continued to produce material that can be used to develop nuclear weapons, would you support or oppose military action?
Support : 48%
Oppose : 40%
Don't know: 12%
--
Q: Would you trust George W. Bush to make the right decision about whether we should go to war with Iran?
Yes: 42%
No: 54%
Don't know: 4%
