Monday, June 26, 2006
News RhetIraq: Degraded Weapons Found - Not WMD
Quotes: From article titled, "New report offers no evidence that Iraq stockpiled WMD"
A new, partially declassified intelligence report provides no new evidence that Saddam Hussein had stockpiled weapons of mass destruction on the eve of the U.S.-led invasion, as President Bush alleged in making the case for war, U.S. intelligence officials said Thursday.
The report, made public in the midst of a partisan debate in Congress, says that about 500 munitions containing degraded chemical weapons, including mustard gas and sarin nerve agent, have been found in Iraq since the March 2003 invasion.
But the intelligence officials said the munitions dated from before the 1991 Persian Gulf War and were for the most part badly deteriorated. "They are not in a condition where they could be used as designed," one intelligence official said.
"There is not new news from the coalition point of view," one official said, noting that chief U.S. weapons inspector Charles Duelfer predicted in a March 2005 report that such vintage weapons would continue to be found.
The officials from three agencies briefed reporters on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitive intelligence data involved.
The report was written by the National Ground Intelligence Center, an Army unit, and its key points were declassified at the request of House Intelligence Committee Chairman Peter Hoekstra, R-Mich. He and Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., released it during Senate debate this week over the U.S. troop presence in Iraq.
Santorum and Hoekstra didn't return calls requesting comment Thursday in response to the intelligence officials.
"This is an incredibly - in my mind - significant finding," Santorum told a news conference Wednesday. "It is important for the American public to understand that these weapons did in fact exist, were present in the country and were in fact and continue to be a threat to us."
The intelligence officials offered a less alarming view.
They said the old munitions had been found in groups of one and two, indicating that they'd been discarded, not that they were part of an organized program to stockpile banned weapons.
Sunday, June 25, 2006
News RhetIraq: Number of Iraqi Dead
Quotes: From article titled, "Iraqi death toll reaches 50,000"
At least 50,000 Iraqis have died violently since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, according to statistics from the Baghdad morgue, the Iraqi Health Ministry and other agencies — a toll 20,000 higher than previously acknowledged by the Bush administration.
Many more Iraqis are thought to have been killed but have not been counted because of serious lapses in recording the number of deaths in the chaotic first year after the invasion, when there was no functioning government, and because of continued spotty reporting nationwide.
The toll, which is dominated by civilians but probably also includes some security forces and insurgents, is daunting: Proportionately, it’s as if 600,000 Americans had been killed nationwide during the past three years.
Iraqi government officials say violent deaths in some regions have been grossly undercounted, notably in the troubled province of Anbar, where local health workers often cannot compile the data because of violence, security crackdowns, electrical shortages and failing telephone networks.
The Health Ministry acknowledged the undercount. In addition, the ministry said its figures exclude the three provinces that make up the semiautonomous northern region of Kurdistan because Kurdish officials do not provide numbers to Baghdad.
Iraqi RhetIraq: National Security Advisor on Exit Stategy
Source: The Washington Post
Quotes: From article penned by Mr. Rubaie and published on June 20, 2006 titled, "The Way Out of Iraq: A Road Map";
There has been much talk about a withdrawal of U.S. and coalition troops from Iraq, but no defined timeline has yet been set. There is, however, an unofficial "road map" to foreign troop reductions that will eventually lead to total withdrawal of U.S. troops. This road map is based not just on a series of dates but, more important, on the achievement of set objectives for restoring security in Iraq.
Iraq has a total of 18 governorates, which are at differing stages in terms of security. Each will eventually take control of its own security situation, barring a major crisis. But before this happens, each governorate will have to meet stringent minimum requirements as a condition of being granted control. For example, the threat assessment of terrorist activities must be low or on a downward trend. Local police and the Iraqi army must be deemed capable of dealing with criminal gangs, armed groups and militias, and border control. There must be a clear and functioning command-and-control center overseen by the governor, with direct communication to the prime minister's situation room.
Despite the seemingly endless spiral of violence in Iraq today, such a plan is already in place. All the governors have been notified and briefed on the end objective. The current prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, has approved the plan, as have the coalition forces, and assessments of each province have already been done. Nobody believes this is going to be an easy task, but there is Iraqi and coalition resolve to start taking the final steps to have a fully responsible Iraqi government accountable to its people for their governance and security. Thus far four of the 18 provinces are ready for the transfer of power -- two in the north (Irbil and Sulaymaniyah) and two in the south (Maysan and Muthanna). Nine more provinces are nearly ready.
With the governors of each province meeting these strict objectives, Iraq's ambition is to have full control of the country by the end of 2008. In practice this will mean a significant foreign troop reduction. We envisage the U.S. troop presence by year's end to be under 100,000, with most of the remaining troops to return home by the end of 2007.
The eventual removal of coalition troops from Iraqi streets will help the Iraqis, who now see foreign troops as occupiers rather than the liberators they were meant to be. It will remove psychological barriers and the reason that many Iraqis joined the so-called resistance in the first place. The removal of troops will also allow the Iraqi government to engage with some of our neighbors that have to date been at the very least sympathetic to the resistance because of what they call the "coalition occupation." If the sectarian issue continues to cause conflict with Iraq's neighbors, this matter needs to be addressed urgently and openly -- not in the guise of aversion to the presence of foreign troops.
Moreover, the removal of foreign troops will legitimize Iraq's government in the eyes of its people. It has taken what some feel is an eternity to form a government of national unity. This has not been an easy or enviable task, but it represents a significant achievement, considering that many new ministers are working in partisan situations, often with people with whom they share a history of enmity and distrust. By its nature, the government of national unity, because it is working through consensus, could be perceived to be weak. But, again, the drawdown of foreign troops will strengthen our fledgling government to last the full four years it is supposed to.
While Iraq is trying to gain its independence from the United States and the coalition, in terms of taking greater responsibility for its actions, particularly in terms of security, there are still some influential foreign figures trying to spoon-feed our government and take a very proactive role in many key decisions. Though this may provide some benefits in the short term, in the long run it will only serve to make the Iraqi government a weaker one and eventually lead to a culture of dependency. Iraq has to grow out of the shadow of the United States and the coalition, take responsibility for its own decisions, learn from its own mistakes, and find Iraqi solutions to Iraqi problems, with the knowledge that our friends and allies are standing by with support and help should we need it.
Iraqi PM RhetIraq: Iraq Reconciliation Plan
Source: MSNBC
Quotes: From article titled, "Iraqi PM offers olive branch to insurgents"
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Sunday offered an olive branch to insurgents who join in rebuilding Iraq and said lawmakers should set a timeline for the Iraqi military and police to take control of security throughout the country.
The prime minister made no mention of any timetable for the withdrawal of U.S.-led forces in a 24-point national reconciliation plan he presented to parliament.
The plan would include an amnesty for insurgents and opposition figures who have not been involved in terrorist activities. Al-Maliki stressed that insurgent killers would not escape justice.
The Iraqi parliament was to debate the plan, which is believed to face considerable opposition among hard-liners on both sides of the Sunni-Shiite divide.
Al-Maliki’s reconciliation plan said there should be a timeline established for Iraqi forces to take over all security duties in the country. It included no specifics on the withdrawal of American and British forces, a Shiite lawmaker told The Associated Press.
The plan also seeks compensation for former detainees “and those who were killed by Iraqi and American forces.” Time spent in prison would be considered as part of a former detainee’s mandatory military service.
Saturday, June 24, 2006
News RhetIraq: Sunni Religious Leader Captured/Released
Quotes: From article titled, "Sunnis Complain Religious Leader Detained"
Sunni groups complained Saturday that one of their top religious leaders was detained by American troops in Tikrit for several hours, while the U.S. military said three soldiers from the same division were killed in separate incidents.
The influential Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars said Jamal al-Din Abdul Karim al-Dabban and his three sons were taken into custody at about 5 a.m. in Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's hometown. The Iraqi Islamic party, the country's largest Sunni political group, also condemned the arrest.
The cleric, who is a mufti - or religious authority - for Iraq's Sunni Arab minority, and his sons were released about seven hours later after protests, Tikrit Gov. Hamad Humoud al-Qaisi said.
The U.S. military said it was investigating the incident.
News RhetIraq: State of Emergency in Baghdad
Quotes: From article titled, "Iraqi Govt Declares State of Emergency"
The Iraqi government declared a state of emergency and imposed a curfew Friday after insurgent gunmen set up roadblocks in central Baghdad and opened fire on U.S. and Iraqi troops just north of the heavily fortified Green Zone.
With just two hours notice, the prime minister ordered everyone off the streets of the capital from 2 p.m. Friday until 6 a.m. Saturday. U.S. and Iraqi forces also were engaged in firefights with insurgents in the dangerous Dora neighborhood in south Baghdad.
The new security measures came as Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki sought to rein in unrelenting insurgent and sectarian violence. He launched a massive security operation in Baghdad 10 days ago, deploying tens of thousands of troops who flooded the city, snarling traffic with hundreds of checkpoints.
While violence had diminished somewhat, the outbreak of fighting on Haifa Street and in the Dora neighborhood apparently prompted al-Malaki to declare the state of emergency even as Friday prayer services were in progress, sending many residents scrambling homeward to beat the curfew.
Military RhetIraq: Gen. Casey - Troop Withdrawls
Source: NY Times
Quotes: From article titled, "Top U.S. General in Iraq Outlines Sharp Troop Cut"
According to a classified briefing at the Pentagon this week by the commander, Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the number of American combat brigades in Iraq is projected to decrease to 5 or 6 from 14 by December 2007.
Under the plan, the first reductions would be carried out this September, when two combat brigades will rotate out of Iraq without being replaced. Currently, there are 127,000 American troops in Iraq.
American officials emphasized that any withdrawals would depend on continued progress, including the development of competent Iraqi security forces, a reduction in Sunni Arab hostility toward the new Iraqi government and the assumption that the insurgency will not expand beyond Iraq's six central provinces.
A senior White House official said that General Casey did not present a formal plan for Mr. Bush's approval but rather a concept of how the United States might move forward after consulting with Iraqi authorities.
Although the planning for 2006 is advanced, officials say the projected withdrawals for 2007 are more of a forecast of what may be possible given current trends than a hard timeline.
In the general's briefing, the future American role in Iraq is divided into three phases. The next 12 months was described as a period of stabilization. The period from the summer of 2007 through the summer of 2008 was described a time when the emphasis would be on the restoration of the Iraqi government's authority. The period from the summer of 2008 though the summer of 2009 was cast as one in which the Iraqi government would be increasingly self-reliant.
In line with this vision, some cuts would begin soon. The United States has 14 combat brigades in Iraq, plus many other support troops. Under the plan, the Unites States would shrink this force to 12 combat brigades by September. This would be done by not replacing two brigades that are scheduled to be withdrawn: the First Brigade of the 10th Mountain Division and the Third Brigade of the 101st Airborne Division.
According to the projections in General Casey's briefing, the number of combat brigades would shrink to seven to eight combat brigades by June 2007 and finally to five to six brigades by December 2007.
At the same time the number of bases in Iraq would decline as American forces consolidated. By the end of the year the number of bases would shrink to 57 from the current 69. By June 2007, there would be 30 bases, and by December 2007 there would be only 11.
The reduction and consolidation of the American force is contingent on the growth and expansion of the Iraqi forces. According to the plan, the Iraqis are to have five army divisions that will control their own swaths of territory in Iraq by September. By December, that number is to grow to nine. A 10th Iraqi Division is to be deployed in the dangerous Anbar Province in western Iraq in the spring of 2007.
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
Congressional RhetIraq: Debating Withdrawl from Iraq
Source: ABC News
Quotes: From article titled, "McCain: Not Time to Withdraw From Iraq"
The Senate will debate Sen. John Kerry's proposal — which says essentially that all U.S. troops must be out of Iraq by July 2007 — and a nonbinding resolution that advocates a phased withdrawal, which would begin this year but has no specific end date.
"The administration's policy to date — that we'll be there for as long as Iraq needs us — will result in Iraq's depending upon us longer. We should tell the Iraqis that the American security blanket is not permanent," said Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich.
"If you have a planned withdrawal, there's going to be an end date, and we don't feel that's what's called for at this time," said Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. "We think that if you have a planned withdrawal, then you announce to the insurgents that you're leaving. There is an old adage that work expands to fill time."
Unlike with Iraq, McCain said, the United States could have walked away from Vietnam without fearing that it would destabilize an entire region. If Iraq is abandoned, McCain said, the conflict will spread to other parts of the Middle East.
[Blogger's Note: The following is excerpted from the U.S. Department of State Office of the Historian via Univ. of Illinois at Chicago Library]
"Several factors contributed to increased U.S. intervention, including the deteriorating military situation, the instability of the South Vietnamese Government, and the rising consensus within the U.S. Government to make a stand in Vietnam against the spread of Communism."
[Blogger's Note: The following are excerpts from Melvin Laird's "Iraq: Learning the Lessons of Vietnam" appearing at Foreign Affairs. Laird was Secretary of Defense for Richard Nixon; 1969-1973.]
"Johnson saw Southeast Asia as the place to stop the spread of communism, and he spared no expense or personnel."
"Three decades ago, Asia really was threatened by the spread of communism. The Korean War was a fresh memory. In Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, and even India, communist movements were gaining a foothold. They failed in large part because the United States drew a line at Vietnam that distracted and sucked resources away from its Cold War nemesis, the Soviet Union."
News RhetIraq: Murder Accused of Servicemen in Iraq
Quotes: From article titled, "Servicemen to Face Charges in Iraqi Civilian Deaths"
Eight U.S. servicemen are expected to face charges, including kidnapping, conspiracy and murder in connection with the death of an Iraqi civilian, officials said this morning.
The Marine Corps has scheduled a news conference at Camp Pendleton for later today, where the charges against seven Marines and one sailor are expected to be announced.
All are from the 3rd Battalion, 5th Regiment, 1st Marine Division.
The charges stem from an incident on April 26 in Hamandiya, Iraq. U.S. forces allegedly broke into a house and dragged out an unarmed 52-year-old man.
The man was killed. According to officials, an AK-47 and a shovel were left near the body to make it appear that he was an insurgent caught digging a hole to place a roadside bomb.
Defense attorneys have suggested that relatives of the slain Iraqi may have concocted the story in hopes of getting money from the United States. The military has dispensed millions of dollars to Iraqis who have lost family members or had property destroyed.
The Hamandiya case comes amid a continuing investigation into killings by Marines of 24 Iraqis, including women and children, in the insurgent stronghold of Haditha on Nov. 19.
It also comes in the same week as the military announced that three U.S. Army soldiers were charged with premeditated murder in connection with the killing of three Iraqi detainees, as well as with threatening the life of a fellow soldier, who they feared would challenge their accounts of the deaths.
An investigation by a two-star Army general has now concluded that the Marines killed the 24 without provocation and that officers were negligent in not demanding a full investigation before Time magazine reporters began its inquiry.
Australian RhetIraq: Defense Minister on Pullout from al-Muthana
Source: Associated Press via Mainichi Daily News
Quotes: From article titled, "Australia to review its troop levels in Iraq by 2007"
Australia will review its troop deployment to Iraq by the end of this year, Defense Minister Brendan Nelson said Wednesday.
Australia -- a staunch U.S. ally -- has around 1,320 troops in Iraq and the Middle East, including 460 troops guarding Japanese reconstruction efforts in Iraq's southern Muthana province.
Earlier this week, the Iraqi government announced that Australian and British forces would soon hand over security responsibilities in the province to Iraqi forces. Japan has also announced its withdrawal from the region.
He said Australia would evaluate the success of the Iraqi forces in protecting Muthana province before reassessing its military presence in Iraq.
"If we can see that the provisional Iraqi government in al-Muthana can successfully manage its own affairs and its own security then I would expect that by the end of this year we would be starting to think about our future deployment."
The minister said he expected Iraqi forces would soon assume security responsibility over the entire country, and would then ask coalition partners to withdraw.
"At that point Australia will then move to withdraw," Nelson said.
Nelson earlier warned that militants might step up attacks in Muthana once foreign troops leave.
"The insurgents ... might possibly want to target al-Muthana as being the first province to go to Iraqi control," Nelson told reporters on Tuesday. But "we are confident that the soldiers and the Iraqi army that we have trained in al-Muthana are very much up to the task of providing their own security." (AP)
Iraqi RhetIraq: Parliamentary Speaker
Source: Azzaman
Quotes: From article titled, "Parliamentary speaker tells U.S. commander to spare Iraqi blood"
U.S. troops must seek ways other than military operations to bring stability to Iraq, the top U.S. commander in Iraq George Casey was told.
“Enough Iraqi blood has been shed and its time to defend the dignity of the sons of our people in all fiends,” Iraq’s parliamentary speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani is reported to have said during an audience with Casey.
Mashhadani made clear to Casey that Iraqis would not like to see “a repeat of the blunders that accompanied the Falluja operations.”
Mashhadani’s remarks come as U.S. troops are said to be positioning themselves for an almost similar foray against the city of Anbar where nearly 400,000 people live.
“The military option is not necessarily the optimum solution to overcome security crises gripping the country,” Mashhadani told Casey.
“Iraqis are in urgent need of Iraqi solutions that correspond to the (current) slogan of national reconciliation advocated by both the parliament and the government at the same time,” added Mashhadani.
Casey was reported to have said that Mashhadani’s views “will reflect positively on the military plans being prepared by the allied forces.”
Iraqi RhetIraq: Minister of Planning and Development
Source: Azzaman
Quotes: From article titled, "Iraq is a failed corrupted state, minister says"
Ali Khalib Baban made the comments in an interview with the newspaper, his first since assuming his new post in May.
“We carry out our duties … in extremely difficult conditions … we frankly say that we are passing through a phase marked by unprecedented chaos and corruption in government ranks,” Baban said.
He said it was not easy to do any planning under such circumstances. Conditions, he added, were further complicated by the upsurge in violence and mounting insecurity.
“The planning process no matter how promising and efficient will not be implemented in a correct way,” he said.
Planning, he added, needs “stability and a firm, stable and strong government. Unfortunately none of these conditions are currently available in Iraq,” he said.
“Unemployment is practically a big and dangerous issue … The Iraqi economy generally is in the throes of serious problems. Production sectors and utilities are retreating and in the absence of both local and foreign investments, the creation of new jobs becomes almost impossible,” he said.
Former Bush Admin RhetIraq: Richard Armitage
Source: The Australian
Quotes: From article titled, "Iraq: US may be asked to leave"
"The British used to make a big deal of walking around in their berets in the south," he said. "Now they won't even go to the latrines without their helmets. The south has got much rougher, it's mainly Shia on Shia violence."
And he said he believed the Iraqis would soon ask the US to leave their country.
The most optimistic scenario following a US withdrawal would be that Iraq would become a loose federation -- although the term federation would not be used because it upsets neighbouring Turkey -- with a weak central government.
"The difficulty then will be to stop them (the Iraqis) causing violence for their neighbours," Mr Armitage said.
This was because almost all of Iraq's neighbours had restive Shia minorities and the governments of both Iraq and Iran would come under pressure to intervene on their behalf.
Mr Armitage believed the Shi'ites and Sunnis had not sated their appetite for violence against each other. But there were signs of the essential compromises necessary to make Iraq stable in the negotiations taking place inside the new Iraqi Government.
Mr Armitage said he hoped there could be a draw-down of US and other coalition troops in Iraq in the next 12 to 18 months.
Mr Armitage was equally gloomy about Afghanistan, especially in the south, where violence was worsening and Australia was deploying a new provincial reconstruction team. "It'll be heavy lifting for them," he said. "Five years after the overthrow of the Taliban, the ordinary people don't see much change in their lives."
Several factors were driving the renewed violence in Afghanistan including drugs which provided money for numerous warlords.
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
Bush Admin RhetIraq: Zalmay Khalilzad
Source: Washington Post (pdf of actual cable)
Quotes: The following is the text of the entire State Department cable from Iraq dated, June 6, 2006 (see link above for pdf copy);
R 121430Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5042
INFO IRAQ COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS BAGHDAD 001992
E.O. 122956: N/A
TAGS: PHUM, PREL, ASEC, AMGT, IZ
SUBJECT: Snapshots from the Office: Public Affairs Staff Show Strains of Social Discord
SENSITIVE
1. (SBU) Beginning in March, and picking up in mid-May, Iraqi staff in the Public Affairs section have complained that Islamist and/or militia groups have been negatively affecting their daily routine. Harassment over proper dress and habits has been increasingly pervasive. They also report that power cuts and fuel prices have diminished their quality of life. Conditions vary by neighborhood, but even upscale neighborhoods such as Mansur have visibly deteriorated.
Women’s Rights
----------------------
2. (SBU) The Public Affairs Office has 9 local Iraqi employees. Two of our female employees report stepped up harassment beginning in mid-May. One, a Shiite who favors Western clothing, was advised by an unknown woman in her upscale Shiite/Christian Baghdad neighborhood to wear a veil and not to drive her own car. Indeed, she said, some groups are pushing women to cover even their faces, a step not taken in Iran even at its most conservative.
3.(SBU) Another, a Sunni, said that people in her middle-class neighborhood are harassing women and telling them to cover up and stop using cell phones (suspected channel to licentious relationships with men). She said that the taxi driver who brings her every day to the green zone checkpoint has told her he cannot let her ride unless she wears a headcover. A female in the PAS cultural section is now wearing a full abaya after receiving direct threats in May. She says her neighborhood, Adhamiya, is no longer permissive if she is not clad so modestly.
4. (SBU) These women say they cannot identify the groups that are pressuring them; many times, the cautions come from other women, sometimes from men who they say could be Sunni or Shiite, but appear conservative.They also tell us that some ministries, notably the Sadrist controlled Ministry of Transportation, have been forcing females to wear the hijab at work.
Dress Code for All?
------------------------
5.(SBU) Staff members have reported that it is now dangerous for men to wear shorts in public; they no longer allow their children to play outside in shorts. People who wear jeans in public have come under attack from what staff members describe as Wahabis and Sadrists.
Evictions
------------
6.(SBU) One colleague beseeched us to weigh in to help a neighbor who was uprooted in May from her home of 30 years, on the pretense of application of some long-disused law that allows owners to evict tenants after 14 years. The woman, who is a Fayli Kurd, says she has nowhere to go, no other home, but the courts give them no recourse to this assertion of power. Such uprootings may be a response by new Shiite government authorities to similar actions against Arabs by Kurds in other parts of Iraq. (NOTE: An Arab newspaper editor told us he is preparing an extensive survey of ethnic cleansing, which he said is taking place in almost every Iraqi province, as political parties and their militias are seemingly engaged in tit-for-tat reprisals all over Iraq. One editor told us that the KDP is now planning to set up tent cities in Irbil, to house Kurds being evicted from Baghdad.)
Power Cuts and Fuel Shortages a Drain on Society
--------------------------------------
7.Temperatures in Baghdad have already reached 115 degrees. Employees all confirm that by the last week of May, they were getting one hour of power for every six hours without. That was only about four hours of power a day for the city. By early June, the situation had improved slightly. In Hai al Shaab, power has recently improved from one in six to one in three hours. Other staff report similar variances. Central Baghdad neighborhood Bab al Mu'atham has had no city power for over a month. Areas near hospitals, political party headquarters, and the green zone have the best supply, in some cases reaching 24 hours. One staff member reported that a friend lives in a building that houses a new minister; within 24 hours of his appointment, her building had city power 24 hours a day.
8.(SBU) All employees supplement city power with service contracted with neighborhood generator hookups that they pay for monthly. One employee pays 7500 ID per ampere to get 10 amperes per month (75,000 ID = USD 50/month). For this, her family gets 6 hours power per day, with service ending at 2 am. Another employee pays 9000 ID per ampere to get 10 amperes per month (90,000 = USD 60). For this, his family gets 8 hours per day, with service running until 5 am.
9.(SBU) Fuel lines have also taxed our staff. One employee told us May 29 that he had spent 12 hours on his day off (Saturday) waiting to get gas. Another staff member confirmed that shortages were so dire, prices on the black market in much of Baghdad were now above 1,000 Iraqi dinars per liter (the official, subsidized price is 250 ID).
Kidnappings, and Threats of Worse
-----------------------------------------------
10.(SBU) One employee informed us in March that his brother in law had been kidnapped. The man was eventually released, but this caused enormous emotional distress to the entire family. One employee, a Sunni Kurd, received an indirect threat to her life in April. She took extended leave, and by May, relocated abroad with her family.
Security Forces Mistrusted
------------------------------------
11. (SBU) In April, employees began reporting a change in demeanor of guards at the green zone checkpoints. They seemed to be more militia-like, in some cases seemingly taunting. One employee asked us to explore getting her press credentials because guards had held her embassy badge up and proclaimed loudly to nearby passers-by "Embassy" as she entered. Such information is a death sentence if overheard by the wrong people.
Supervising a Staff at High Risk
-------------------------------------------
12. (SBU) Employees all share a common tale of their lives: of nine employees in March, only four had family members who knew they worked at the embassy. That makes it difficult for them and for us. Iraqi colleagues called after hours often speak Arabic as an indication they cannot speak openly in English.
13. (SBU) We cannot call employees in on weekends or holidays without blowing their "cover." Likewise, they have been unavailable during multiple security closures imposed by the government since February. A Sunni Arab female employee tells us that family pressures and the inability to share details of her employment is very tough; she told her family she was in Jordan when we sent her on training to the U.S. in February. Mounting criticisms of the U.S. at home among family members also makes her life difficult. She told us in mid-June that most of her family believes the U.S. -- which is widely perceived as fully controlling the country and tolerating the malaise -- is punishing populations as Saddam did (but with Sunnis and very poor Shiites now at the bottom of the list). Otherwise, she says, the allocation of power and security would not be so arbitrary.
14. (SBU) Some of our staff do not take home their American cell phones, as this makes them a target. Planning for their own possible abduction, they use code names for friends and colleagues and contacts entered into Iraq cell phones. For at least six months, we have not been able to use any local staff members for translation at on-camera press events.
15. (SBU) More recently, we have begun shredding documents printed out that show local staff surnames. In March, a few staff members approached us to ask what provisions would we make for them if we evacuate.
Sectarian Tensions Within Families
-----------------------------------------------
16. (SBU) Ethnic and sectarian faultlines are also becoming part of the daily media fare in the country. One Shiite employee told us in late May that she can no longer watch TV news with her mother, who is a Sunni, because her mother blamed all government failings on the fact that Shiites are in charge. Many of the employee's immediate family members, including her father, one sister, and a brother, left Iraq years ago. This month, another sister is departing for Egypt, as she images the future here is too bleak.
Frayed Nerves and Mistrust at the Office
------------------------------------------------------
17.(SBU) Against this backdrop of frayed social networks, tension and moodiness have risen. One Shiite made disparaging comments about the Sunni caliph Othman which angered a Kurd. A Sunni Arab female apparently insulted a Shiite female colleague by criticizing he overly liberal dress. One colleague told us he feels "defeated" by circumstances, citing the example of being unable to help his two year old son who has asthma and cannot sleep in the stifling heat.
18.(SBU) Another employee tells us that life outside the Green Zone has become "emotionally draining." He lives in a mostly Shiite area and claims to attend a funeral "every evening." He, like other local employees, is financially responsible for his immediate and extended families. He revealed that "the burden of responsibility; new stress coming from social circles who increasingl disapprove of the coalition presence, and everyday threats weigh very heavily." This employee became extremely agitated in late May at website reports of an abduction of an Iraqi working with MNFI, whose expired Embassy and MNFI badges were posted on the website.
Staying Straight With Neighborhood Governments and the ‘Alasa’
------------------------------------------------
19.(SBU) Staff members say they daily assess how to move safely in public. Often, if they must travel outside their own neighborhoods, they adopt the clothing, language, and traits of the area. In Jadriya, for example, one needs to conform to the SCIRI/Badr ethic; in Yusufiya, a strict Sunni conservative dress code has taken hold. Adhamiya and Salihiya, controlled by the secular Ministry of Defense, are not conservative. Moving inconspicuously in Sadr City requires Shiite conservative dress and a particular lingo. Once-upscale Mansur district, near the Green Zone, according to one employee, by early June was an "unrecognizable ghost town."
20. (SBU) Since Samarra, Baghdadis have honed these survival skills. Vocabulary has shifted to reflect new behavior. Our staff -- and our contacts -- have become adept in modifying behavior to avoid "Alasas," informants who keep an eye out for "outsiders" in neighborhoods. The Alasa mentality is becoming entrenched as Iraqi security forces fail to gain public confidence.
21. (SBU) Our staff report that security and services are being rerouted through "local providers" whose affiliations are vague. As noted above, those who are admonishing citizens on their dress are not known to the residents. Neighborhood power providers are not well known either, nor is it clear how they avoid robbery or targeting. Personal safety depends on good relations with the "neighborhood" governments, who barricade streets and ward off outsiders. The central government, our staff says, is not relevant; even local mukhtars have been displaced or coopted by militias. People no longer trust most neighbors.
22.(SBU) A resident of upscale Shiite/Christian Karrada district told us that "outsiders" have moved in and now control the local mukhtars, one of whom now has cows and goats grazing in the streets. When she expressed her concern at the dereliction, he told her to butt out.
Comment
--------------
23. (SBU) Although our staff retain a professional demeanor, strains are apparent. We see that their personal fears are reinforcing divisive sectarian or ethnic channels, despite talk of reconciliation by officials. Employees are apprehensive enough that we fear they may exaggerate developments or steer us towards news that comports with their own worldview. Objectivity, civility, and logic that make for a functional workplace may falter if social pressures outside the Green Zone don't abate.
KHALILZAD
Friday, June 16, 2006
Congressional RhetIraq: "No" to Timetable Withdrawl from Iraq
Quotes: From article titled, "House rejects Iraq withdrawal timetable in election-year vote after fiery debate"
The House on Friday rejected a timetable for pulling U.S. forces out of Iraq after a ferociously partisan debate, forcing lawmakers in both parties to go on record on a major issue in re-election campaigns nationwide.
A day after the Senate took the same position against troop withdrawal, the GOP-led House voted 256-153 to approve a nonbinding resolution that says an “arbitrary date for the withdrawal or redeployment” of American forces is not in the national interest.
Iraqi RhetIraq: Asking for Coalition Withdrawl Timeline
Source: Associated Press via Seattle Post-Intelligencer
Quotes: From article titled, "Top Sunni asked Bush for pullout timeline"
Iraq's vice president has asked President Bush for a timeline for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Iraq, the Iraqi president's office said.
Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, a Sunni, made the request during his meeting with Bush on Tuesday, when the U.S. president made a surprise visit to Iraq.
"I supported him in this," President Jalal Talabani said in a statement released Wednesday. Al-Hashimi's representatives could not immediately be reached for comment Thursday.
Monday, June 12, 2006
Ex-UN RhetIraq: Hans Blix On Nuclear Proliferation
Source: International Herald Tribune via Information Clearing House
Quotes: From opinion article titled, "Don't Forget Those Other 27,000 Nukes"
During the Cold War, it proved possible to reach many significant agreements on disarmament. Why does it seem so impossible now, when the great powers no longer feel threatened by one another?
Almost all the talk these days is about the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to states like Iran and North Korea, or to terrorists. Foreign ministers meet again and again, concerned that Iran has enriched a few milligrams of uranium to a 4 percent level.
Some want to start waving the stick immediately. They are convinced that Iran will eventually violate its commitment under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to forego nuclear weapons.
While it's desirable that the foreign ministers talk about Iran, they don't seem to devote any thought to the fact that there are still some 27,000 real nuclear weapons in the United States, Russia and other states, and that many of these are on hair-trigger alert.
Nor do the ministers seem to realize that the determination they express to reduce the nuclear threat is diminished by their failure to take seriously their commitment, made within the framework of the NPT, to move toward the reduction and elimination of their own nuclear arsenals.
The stagnation in global disarmament is only part of the picture. In the United States, military authorities want new types of nuclear weapons; in Britain, the government is considering the replacement, at tremendous cost, of one generation of nuclear weapons by another - as defense against whom?
Last year a UN summit of heads of states and governments failed to adopt a single recommendation on how to attain further disarmament or prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. For nearly a decade, work at the disarmament conference in Geneva has stood still. It is time for a revival.
One can well understand that policymakers in the United States, as elsewhere, feel disappointment and concern that the global instruments against nuclear proliferation - the NPT and international inspection - have proved to be insufficient to stop Iraq, North Korea, Libya and possibly Iran on their way to nuclear weapons.
This may help explain their inclination to use the enormous military potential of the U.S. as either a threat or a direct means of preventing proliferation.
However, after three years of a costly and criticized war in Iraq to destroy weapons that did not exist, doubts are beginning to arise about the military method, and a greater readiness may emerge to try global cooperation once again to reduce and eventually eliminate weapons of mass destruction.
A report with 60 concrete recommendations to the states of the world on what they could do to free themselves from nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, worked out by an independent international commission of which I was the chairman, is now available at www.wmdcommission.org.
Apart from proposals for measures to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction to more states and terrorists, the report points to two measures that could turn current concerns about renewed arms races into new hopes for common security. In both cases, success would depend on the United States.
A U.S. ratification of the comprehensive test-ban treaty would, in all likelihood, lead other states to ratify and bring all such tests to an end, making the development of nuclear weapons more difficult. Leaving the treaty in limbo, as has been done since 1996, is to risk new weapons testing.
The second measure would be to conclude an internationally verified agreement to cut off the production of highly enriched uranium and plutonium for weapons purposes.
This would close the tap everywhere for more weapons material and would be of special importance if an agreement on nuclear cooperation with the United States were to give India access to more uranium than it has at the moment.
It is positive that the U.S. has recently presented a draft cutoff agreement, but hard to understand why this agreement does not include international inspection. Do the drafters think that the recent record of national intelligence indicates that international verification is superfluous?
Victim RhetIraq: From Father of Nicholas Berg
Source: Reuters
Quotes: From article titled, "Father of beheaded man blames Bush, not Zarqawi"
Michael Berg, whose son Nick was beheaded in Iraq in 2004, said on Thursday he felt no sense of relief at the killing of the al Qaeda leader in Iraq and blamed President Bush for his son's death.
Asked what would give him satisfaction, Berg, an anti-war activist and candidate for U.S. Congress, said, "The end of the war and getting rid of George Bush."
"I don't think that Zarqawi is himself responsible for the killings of hundreds of thousands of people in Iraq," Berg said in a combative television interview with the U.S. Fox News network. "I think George Bush is.
"George Bush is the one that invaded this country, George Bush is the one that destabilized it so that Zarqawi could get in, so that Zarqawi had a need to get in, to defend his region of the country from American invaders."
Berg said Bush was to blame for the torture of Iraqi prisoners by U.S. soldiers at Abu Ghraib prison near Baghdad.
"Yeah, like George Bush didn't OK the torture and death and rape of people in the Abu Ghraib prison for which my son was killed in retaliation?" he told his Fox interviewers.
In a telephone interview with Reuters from his home in Wilmington, Delaware, the father said: "I have no sense of relief, just sadness that another human being had to die."
"I have learned to forgive a long time ago, and I regret mostly that that will bring about another wave of revenge from his cohorts from al Qaeda," he told Fox.
When an Islamist Web site showed the video of a man severing Berg's head, the CIA said Zarqawi was probably the one wielding the knife. The father said he was not convinced.
"I have been lied to by my own government," he told Reuters on Thursday.
News RhetIraq: Al Zarqawi Killed
Quotes: From article titled, "Zarqawi Killed In US Air Raid"
Al-Qaeda's top man in Iraq, Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, has been killed in an air raid, according to Iraq's prime minister.
Nuri al-Maliki announced this morning that the terrorist's remains had been identified "visually and via fingerprints." Details of the circumstances surrounding his death will be revealed later today, though US military sources say he was killed in a strike on an isolated "safe house" on Wednesday evening.
The US ambassador to Iraq notes that Zarqawi's death is unlikely to reduce the violence in Iraq, at least in the short term. The removal of the most bloodthirsty of terror leaders, however, will be read as a rare moment of good news for allied forces in the region.
Military RhetIraq: 1st Lt. Watada Refusing Orders to Iraq
Source: Democracy Now! via Information Clearing House
Quotes: From transcript of interview on 6/8/2006;
EHREN WATADA: I signed the papers to join the military in March 2003.
AMY GOODMAN: Right at the time of the invasion.
EHREN WATADA: Yes.
AMY GOODMAN: And what was your understanding at the time of what would happen?
EHREN WATADA: In terms of the war, I knew that it was probable, more than likely, that I would be deployed to Iraq. At the time I didn't believe that the war was fully justified. But I think, like millions of people out there, I believed it when the President and many of his deputies told the world, told the U.S., that weapons of mass destruction did exist, that Saddam had ties to 9/11, he had ties to Al Qaeda, and that he had the willingness to use his weapons to attack his neighbors and also the U.S. And so at that time I had no reason to believe that the President would betray the trust of his people, and so I said that we should give him the benefit of the doubt.
AMY GOODMAN: How have you changed over this three years?
EHREN WATADA: When I learned that I was going to be deployed last year, I thought it was my responsibility as an officer to learn everything I could about war in general. Its effects on people, its effects on the soldiers. And also specifically why we were there, what was occurring at that time, what had occurred in the past. In order to get a better understanding, as was my job. And the more I read different articles by international and Constitutional law experts, and reports coming out from government agencies and non-governmental agencies, and the reports and the revelations from independent journalists and the Iraqi people themselves and the soldiers coming home, I came to the conclusion that the war and what we're doing over there is illegal. And so, being so, I felt it was my duty to morally and also legally refuse any orders to participate in it.
News RhetIraq: Special Inspector General Authority Undermined by Bush Signing Statement
Quotes: From article titled, "Who's Following the Iraq Money?"
... it turned out that one of the laws the president chose to ignore was the one establishing the special inspector general post for Iraq. What the president did was write a so-called "signing statement" on the side (unpublicized of course), saying that the new inspector general would have no authority to investigate any contracts or corruption issues involving the Pentagon.
When Thomas Gimble, the acting inspector general of the Pentagon, was asked in 2005 during a congressional hearing by Christopher Shays (R-CT), chair of the House government reform subcommittee, why the Pentagon had no audit team in Iraq to look for fraud, Gimble facilely replied that such a team was "not needed" because Congress had set up the special inspector general unit to do that. He didn't mention that the president had barred the special inspector general from investigating Pentagon scandals.
News RhetIraq: Bloodiest Month in Baghdad
Quotes: From article titled, "Baghdad has bloodiest month as 1,400 targeted killings add to toll"
Nearly 1,400 Iraqi civilians were murdered in targeted killings last month in Baghdad alone, and many more died in indiscriminate bomb blasts, making May the bloodiest month in the capital since the war began, Iraq's health ministry said yesterday.
Italian RhetIraq: Withdrawl from Iraq
Source: The Guardian UK
Quotes: From article titled, "Italian forces to leave Iraq by December"
The new Italian administration today confirmed all Italian troops would withdraw from Iraq by the end of the year.
Italy's foreign minister, Massimo D'Alema, said the government would start reducing the number of troops in Iraq this month and the Italian military presence in Iraq would end by December.
In his [Italian prime minister, Romano Prodi] first policy speech since being sworn in, he criticised Anglo-American policy, calling the invasion of Iraq a "grave mistake" and branding the allied military presence an "occupation". The departure of Italian troops from Iraq would further weaken a coalition that has been hostage to anti-war sentiment in Europe as well as financial constraints.
Italian forces have suffered 32 deaths in Iraq. The Italian contingent is based in Nasiriyah, about 200 miles south-east of Baghdad. The Italian troops were sent in by Mr Berlusconi to help rebuild Iraq after the 2003 ouster of Saddam Hussein.
British Poll RhetIraq: Partnering with US & Participation in Iraq
Quotes: From article titled, "Britons begin to turn away from alliance with America"
THE British public has become increasingly cool towards American policy and critical of its role in the world after the sustained violence in Iraq.
A Populus opinion poll in The Times indicates that fewer than half the public believe that America is a force for good in the world, and nearly two thirds believe that Britain’s future lies more with Europe than with the US.
There is also evidence of a longer-term shift in views about the US. However, while President Bush and his Administration remain unpopular in Britain, Americans as a people remain popular.
There has been a marked fall in the number of voters who say that British troops should stay in Iraq for as long as it takes to make sure that the country is a stable democracy, to 32 per cent, from 38 per cent in February and 49 per cent in October 2004. By contrast, 58 per cent believe that British troops should be “withdrawn from Iraq as soon as possible, even if Iraq is not completely stable”. Although this is slightly down from 62 per cent in February, it compares with 42 per cent in October 2004. With don’t knows at 10 per cent, there is a big margin in favour of early withdrawal, particularly among women, unskilled workers rather than professionals and managers, older rather than younger voters and Liberal Democrats rather than Labour supporters.
This shift in opinion on Iraq has also been reflected in views about the US. Fewer than three fifths (58 per cent) believe that it is important for “Britain’s long-term security that we have a close and special relationship with the US”. This compares with 71 per cent as recently as two months ago. Fewer than half of Lib Dem voters (46 per cent) now agree.
Slightly less than two thirds (65 per cent) believe that “Britain’s future lies more with Europe than America”. In March 2003, before the invasion, about 71 per cent believed that “the conduct of the US towards Iraq makes it more important than ever that Britain is at the heart of Europe”.
Equally striking is that Britons are evenly divided (44 to 45 per cent) about whether “America is a force for good in the world”. This reveals the extent of the cooling in attitudes towards the policies of the US Government. There is a clear gender divide: 48 per cent of men agree; 39 per cent of women do so. Positive views of America’s role in the world are highest among professionals and managers, at
49 per cent, and Tory voters, at 56 per cent; they are the lowest among Lib Dems, at 33 per cent.
Moreover, more than three fifths of British voters (62 per cent) believe that “if Gordon Brown takes over as Prime Minister, he should be much less close to President Bush than Tony Blair has been”. Significantly, this is the view of 65 per cent of Labour voters.
However, earlier analysis by Professor Sir Robert Worcester, of Ipsos/MORI, highlights the distinction between attitudes towards the policies of the US Administration and the country and its people. Consequently, more than two thirds of British voters say that they like Americans and would like to go on holiday in the US.
For more details see www.populuslimited.com.
Military RhetIraq: US Bombing in Afghanistan
Source: Associated Press via Pakistan News Service
Quotes: From article titled, "U.S. Airstrikes on Afghanistan Top 750 for May"
The intensified bombing in Afghanistan has overshadowed the smaller number of U.S. airstrikes on Iraq, said Air Force Lt. Gen. Gary L. North, who commands U.S. and coalition air operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"We have seen more direct support in Afghanistan that is of a kinetic effect than in Iraq of late," North told The Associated Press during a visit to the United Arab Emirates, where he met with defense officials.
Insurgents have mounted a spring offensive against the deployment of U.S.-led troops in the southern Afghan provinces of Helmand and Kandahar, drawing intense bombardments from American warplanes. The surge in fighting has killed more than 400 people, mainly militants, since mid-May.
"As always in the spring, the insurgents are coming out and trying to destabilize" the Afghan government, said North, 52, of Charlottesville, Va.
The increased U.S. bombing has sparked opposition from Afghans angered at the rising death toll of civilians, which Afghan lawmakers blame for a surge in Taliban support.
U.S. warplanes logged nearly 2,000 strikes in Afghanistan between March and May 2006, about as many as the same period in 2005, said Air Force Maj. Michael Young. But airstrikes spiked at 750 this May, as opposed to 660 in May 2005, Young said.
Saturday, June 03, 2006
Iraqi RhetIraq: PM & Deputy PM on US Military Behavior
Source: The New York Times via Information Clearing House
Quotes: From article titled, "U.S. troops routinely attack civilians, Iraqi leader says"
Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki lashed out at the American military on Thursday, denouncing what he characterized as habitual attacks by troops against Iraqi civilians.
As outrage over the disclosure that American Marines killed 24 Iraqis in the town of Haditha last year continued to roil the new government, the country's Sunni Arab deputy prime minister also demanded that American officials turn over their investigative files on the killings and said that the Iraqi government would conduct its own inquiry.
In his comments, al-Maliki said violence against civilians had become a "daily phenomenon" by troops in the American-led coalition who "do not respect the Iraqi people."
"They crush them with their vehicles and kill them just on suspicion," he said. "This is completely unacceptable." Attacks on civilians will play a role in future decisions on how long to ask American forces to remain in Iraq, the prime minister added.
The denunciation was an unusual declaration for a government that remains desperately dependent on American forces to keep some form of order in the country amid a resilient Sunni Arab insurgency in the west, widespread sectarian violence in Baghdad, and deadly feuding among Shiite militias in the south.
Military and congressional officials have said they believe an investigation into the deaths of two dozen Iraqis in Haditha on Nov. 19 will show that a group of Marines shot and killed civilians without justification or provocation.
In Baghdad, senior governmental officials began speaking of the possibility of an Iraqi investigation into the killings as well.
"We in the ministers' Cabinet condemned this crime and demanded that coalition forces show the reasons behind this massacre," Iraqi deputy prime minister Salam al-Zaubai, one of the most powerful Sunni Arabs in the new government, said in an interview.
"As you know, this is not the only massacre, and there are a lot," he said. "The coalition forces must change their behavior. Human blood should be sacred regardless of religion, party and nationality."
Al-Zaubai, also the acting defense minister, acknowledged that Iraqi officials would probably not be able to force the extradition of any troops suspected of culpability in the Haditha killings. But he said a committee of five ministers - including ministers of defense, interior and finance - would probe the killings with the expectation that American officials will turn over their investigative files.
"We do not have the security file because it is in the hands of the coalition forces," he said. "We hope there will not be obstacles ahead."
Military RhetIraq: About Haditha Killings
Source: The Times UK
Quotes: From article titled, "'Massacre Marines blinded by hate'"
A MEMBER of the US Marines unit accused of murdering 24 unarmed Iraqis said yesterday that his colleagues “were blinded by hate” and lost control before the massacre.
Corporal James Crossan, who was injured in the roadside bomb attack that appears to have triggered the incident, was speaking just before President Bush said that he was troubled by the reports. “If laws were broken there will be punishment,” he said.
Several members of the unit were young and inexperienced and may have snapped after seeing one of their colleagues killed by the bomb, Corporal Crossan said. “I think they were blinded by hate . . . and they just lost control.” Corporal Crossan, who passed out soon after being hit by the bomb in al-Haditha on November 19 last year, said that the unit had a lot of new members. “
They might have got scared or they were just p*****, really p***** off and did it.”
The White House said that details of the military investigations into the killings — in what could be the worst case of criminal misconduct by US troops since the invasion — would be made public.
The incident has sparked two investigations, one into the killings and another into whether they were covered up. Up to a dozen Marines are under investigation and several may face murder charges.
