Saturday, June 24, 2006
Military RhetIraq: Gen. Casey - Troop Withdrawls
Source: NY Times
Quotes: From article titled, "Top U.S. General in Iraq Outlines Sharp Troop Cut"
According to a classified briefing at the Pentagon this week by the commander, Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the number of American combat brigades in Iraq is projected to decrease to 5 or 6 from 14 by December 2007.
Under the plan, the first reductions would be carried out this September, when two combat brigades will rotate out of Iraq without being replaced. Currently, there are 127,000 American troops in Iraq.
American officials emphasized that any withdrawals would depend on continued progress, including the development of competent Iraqi security forces, a reduction in Sunni Arab hostility toward the new Iraqi government and the assumption that the insurgency will not expand beyond Iraq's six central provinces.
A senior White House official said that General Casey did not present a formal plan for Mr. Bush's approval but rather a concept of how the United States might move forward after consulting with Iraqi authorities.
Although the planning for 2006 is advanced, officials say the projected withdrawals for 2007 are more of a forecast of what may be possible given current trends than a hard timeline.
In the general's briefing, the future American role in Iraq is divided into three phases. The next 12 months was described as a period of stabilization. The period from the summer of 2007 through the summer of 2008 was described a time when the emphasis would be on the restoration of the Iraqi government's authority. The period from the summer of 2008 though the summer of 2009 was cast as one in which the Iraqi government would be increasingly self-reliant.
In line with this vision, some cuts would begin soon. The United States has 14 combat brigades in Iraq, plus many other support troops. Under the plan, the Unites States would shrink this force to 12 combat brigades by September. This would be done by not replacing two brigades that are scheduled to be withdrawn: the First Brigade of the 10th Mountain Division and the Third Brigade of the 101st Airborne Division.
According to the projections in General Casey's briefing, the number of combat brigades would shrink to seven to eight combat brigades by June 2007 and finally to five to six brigades by December 2007.
At the same time the number of bases in Iraq would decline as American forces consolidated. By the end of the year the number of bases would shrink to 57 from the current 69. By June 2007, there would be 30 bases, and by December 2007 there would be only 11.
The reduction and consolidation of the American force is contingent on the growth and expansion of the Iraqi forces. According to the plan, the Iraqis are to have five army divisions that will control their own swaths of territory in Iraq by September. By December, that number is to grow to nine. A 10th Iraqi Division is to be deployed in the dangerous Anbar Province in western Iraq in the spring of 2007.
