Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Poll RhetIraq: Iraqi Opinion
Source: World Public Opinion
Quotes: From synopsis titled, "Baghdad Shias Believe Killings May Increase Once U.S.-led Forces Depart but Large Majorities Still Support Withdrawal Within a Year"
[Blogger's Note: The full report can be viewed here.]
Most Shia Arabs living in Baghdad have shifted in recent months from preferring the open-ended deployment of foreign troops in Iraq to wanting a one-year timetable for withdrawal. Nonetheless, a growing majority of Shias in the conflict-ridden capital say that if U.S.-led forces leave within six months there could be an upsurge in inter-ethnic violence.
Eight out of ten Shias in Baghdad (80%) say they want foreign forces to leave within a year (72% of Shias in the rest of the country), according to a poll conducted by World Public Opinion in September. None of the Shias polled in Baghdad want U.S.-led troops to be reduced only “as the security situation improves,” a sharp decline from January, when 57 percent of the Shias polled by WPO in the capital city preferred an open-ended U.S presence.
Seven out of ten Iraqis overall—including both the Shia majority (74%) and the Sunni minority (91%)—say they want the United States to leave within a year.
Nonetheless, the number of Shias in Baghdad who fear an upsurge in violence if U.S. troops withdraw within too short a time span has risen a dramatic 52 points since the beginning of the year. Six out of ten Shias in Iraq’s capital city (59%) believe that sect-on-sect killings would rise in the event of a speedy U.S. withdrawal. This view contrasts with that of Shias in the rest of Iraq, where a majority (64%) thinks such violence would decline if U.S. troops departed in six months.
Outside of Baghdad, majorities of Shias and Sunnis have been consistently optimistic about the consequences of a U.S. withdrawal. In January, 56 percent of Shias said inter-ethnic violence would decrease (37% increase) if the U.S.-led forces pulled out while in September, 64 percent said it would decline (29% increase). Among Sunni Arabs, majorities in September (72%) and January (81%) said interethnic violence would decrease if U.S. troops withdrew in six months.
Fewer than one in ten Iraqis (9%) believe foreign forces should only be reduced “as the security situation improves,” a drop of 20 points since January. Support for this option has fallen especially steeply among Shias (from 29% to 5%) and Kurds (57% to 31%).
Nearly all Sunnis also oppose the indefinite presence of foreign forces (2% in favor). But while a majority of Sunnis (57%) still prefer that U.S.-led troops leave within six months, that percentage has declined 26 points since January when 83 percent wanted foreign forces out within half a year.
The number of Shias in the capital city and elsewhere who think Iraq is headed in the right direction has dropped considerably since the beginning of 2006. In January, nine out of ten Shias in Baghdad (88%) thought Iraq was on the right path. By September, three quarters (74%) did. Outside of Baghdad, the declining optimism among Shias has been even steeper. Eight-two percent thought Iraq was headed in the right direction in January while about half (52%) thought so by September.
Seven in ten Shias in Baghdad (71%) say Iraqi forces will be strong enough within six months to take over the country’s security should foreign troops withdraw. That’s an increase of 30 percent from January, when only 41 percent thought that Iraqis would be able to take on the country’s security challenges within six months. There is little difference of opinion on this between Shias in Baghdad (71%) and those elsewhere (66%).
All Shias polled in Baghdad (100%) believe that the U.S. military presence is “provoking more conflict than it is preventing.” Outside of Baghdad, this view is slightly less common: 74 percent of Shias in the rest of the country say the presence of U.S. troops provokes conflict while 25 percent say the troops are a stabilizing force.
At the same time, the number of Shias who approve of attacks on U.S.-led forces has jumped 24 points. In January, about a third of Shias (36%) polled in Baghdad expressed approval of such assaults. By September, the proportion of Shias in Baghdad saying they approved of striking American-led forces had risen to 60 percent. In the rest of the country, Shia support for attacking foreign troops rose 20 points, from 43 percent to 63 percent.
“When asked to name the two countries that pose the greatest threat, the vast majority, about 80 percent, name the United States and Israel.”
Quotes: From synopsis titled, "Baghdad Shias Believe Killings May Increase Once U.S.-led Forces Depart but Large Majorities Still Support Withdrawal Within a Year"
[Blogger's Note: The full report can be viewed here.]
Most Shia Arabs living in Baghdad have shifted in recent months from preferring the open-ended deployment of foreign troops in Iraq to wanting a one-year timetable for withdrawal. Nonetheless, a growing majority of Shias in the conflict-ridden capital say that if U.S.-led forces leave within six months there could be an upsurge in inter-ethnic violence.
Eight out of ten Shias in Baghdad (80%) say they want foreign forces to leave within a year (72% of Shias in the rest of the country), according to a poll conducted by World Public Opinion in September. None of the Shias polled in Baghdad want U.S.-led troops to be reduced only “as the security situation improves,” a sharp decline from January, when 57 percent of the Shias polled by WPO in the capital city preferred an open-ended U.S presence.
Seven out of ten Iraqis overall—including both the Shia majority (74%) and the Sunni minority (91%)—say they want the United States to leave within a year.
Nonetheless, the number of Shias in Baghdad who fear an upsurge in violence if U.S. troops withdraw within too short a time span has risen a dramatic 52 points since the beginning of the year. Six out of ten Shias in Iraq’s capital city (59%) believe that sect-on-sect killings would rise in the event of a speedy U.S. withdrawal. This view contrasts with that of Shias in the rest of Iraq, where a majority (64%) thinks such violence would decline if U.S. troops departed in six months.
Outside of Baghdad, majorities of Shias and Sunnis have been consistently optimistic about the consequences of a U.S. withdrawal. In January, 56 percent of Shias said inter-ethnic violence would decrease (37% increase) if the U.S.-led forces pulled out while in September, 64 percent said it would decline (29% increase). Among Sunni Arabs, majorities in September (72%) and January (81%) said interethnic violence would decrease if U.S. troops withdrew in six months.
Fewer than one in ten Iraqis (9%) believe foreign forces should only be reduced “as the security situation improves,” a drop of 20 points since January. Support for this option has fallen especially steeply among Shias (from 29% to 5%) and Kurds (57% to 31%).
Nearly all Sunnis also oppose the indefinite presence of foreign forces (2% in favor). But while a majority of Sunnis (57%) still prefer that U.S.-led troops leave within six months, that percentage has declined 26 points since January when 83 percent wanted foreign forces out within half a year.
The number of Shias in the capital city and elsewhere who think Iraq is headed in the right direction has dropped considerably since the beginning of 2006. In January, nine out of ten Shias in Baghdad (88%) thought Iraq was on the right path. By September, three quarters (74%) did. Outside of Baghdad, the declining optimism among Shias has been even steeper. Eight-two percent thought Iraq was headed in the right direction in January while about half (52%) thought so by September.
Seven in ten Shias in Baghdad (71%) say Iraqi forces will be strong enough within six months to take over the country’s security should foreign troops withdraw. That’s an increase of 30 percent from January, when only 41 percent thought that Iraqis would be able to take on the country’s security challenges within six months. There is little difference of opinion on this between Shias in Baghdad (71%) and those elsewhere (66%).
All Shias polled in Baghdad (100%) believe that the U.S. military presence is “provoking more conflict than it is preventing.” Outside of Baghdad, this view is slightly less common: 74 percent of Shias in the rest of the country say the presence of U.S. troops provokes conflict while 25 percent say the troops are a stabilizing force.
At the same time, the number of Shias who approve of attacks on U.S.-led forces has jumped 24 points. In January, about a third of Shias (36%) polled in Baghdad expressed approval of such assaults. By September, the proportion of Shias in Baghdad saying they approved of striking American-led forces had risen to 60 percent. In the rest of the country, Shia support for attacking foreign troops rose 20 points, from 43 percent to 63 percent.
“When asked to name the two countries that pose the greatest threat, the vast majority, about 80 percent, name the United States and Israel.”
